In recent months, the health of Russian President Vladimir Putin has been the subject of much speculation, with claims that he has cancer, Parkinson’s, or has even survived an assassination attempt.
But so far, no doctor’s note has been produced.
Should the 69-year-old die or otherwise leave office suddenly, the Federation Council has 14 days to call presidential elections, and if it does not, the Central Election Commission would.
In the meantime, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin would become acting president. However, Mishustin is not seen as being particularly close to Putin, nor a credible candidate for any election.
If someone for example starts writing Medvedev is the successor, it might be seen as a political attack on Medvedev, because no one wants to appear as a successor, because it makes your position more vulnerable.
It’s honestly hard to see Putin going soon. For all the tales of illness, there’s no evidence he is seriously ill, and given how disastrously the war has gone, There are no obvious successors – it wouldn’t be [wise] to look as if you’re auditioning for a position that isn’t vacant.
In the case of the president’s death, duties fall to the prime minister. Will Mishustin manage to hold onto power? We have no way of telling, We can talk about these things in the abstract, but in no way should we rely on these thoughts as some kind of forecast.
It’s very difficult to make predictions about authoritarian countries because we don’t know what will happen. There are no alternative political forces in Russia we can talk about or what one or another faction will do.
Putin is really obsessed with his historical mission, he’s very emotional about Ukraine.
It might be easier for the West to deal with siloviki because their ambitions are lower. Even if Russia becomes even more anti-Western, there may be more room in dealing with Russia.”
Last year, Putin told Russians: “A time will come when, I hope, I can say that such and such a person is worthy in my opinion of leading such a wonderful country like Russia, our homeland.”
Evidently, that time has not come yet.