The Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has predicted that the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Bola Tinubu, might win the 2023 presidential election.
The subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, a global rating company, in its report said the APC candidate had a higher possibility of winning, adding that Nigeria might, however, experience political unrest following Tinubu’s winning.
It warns that if Tinubu emerges victorious, it will likely increase protests and social discontent in the country.
According to it, a win for the APC candidate will likely trigger sentiments of perceived marginalisation among Christians while supporters of his opponents may take to the streets to question the fairness of the electoral process.
The agency also noted that recent polls, which only capture that small fraction of Nigerians, have overstated support for the Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi.
It said, “Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress. Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.
“At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election. Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress) and Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party) were mostly based on responses gathered online. Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.”
